Democrats might have a trifecta for now in the House, Senate, and White House, but it’s razor thin and Republicans are as intent as ever in restoring their minoritarian rule in redistricting. They’re not even subtle about it anymore. They’re not going to reform the party in order to win back voters and compete on a level playing field—they’re going to pass all the state voter suppression laws they can to stop any more Jon Ossoffs and Raphael Warnocks, and when they’ve done that they’ll bring on the gerrymanders.
That’s not just trying to draw congressional boundaries in Republican states to minimize Democratic districts. It’s “also being more aggressive about going after Democrat gerrymanders in the blue states,” says Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. Meaning while they bemoan the fact that Democrats used the courts to throw out extreme gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, they’ll do exactly the same thing—take Democratic legislatures to court, where they’ll have a friendly reception thanks to Mitch McConnell’s packing the courts with Trump extremists.
Republicans have control over redistricting, the once-every-decade allocation of congressional districts based on the Census, in 18 states. Among the Republican states are three that have increased in population enough to potentially gain new seats—Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. “I would say that the national vote could be the same as this year two years from now, and redistricting by itself would easily be enough to alter who controls the chamber,” said Samuel S. Wang, the director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project. He thinks there are three new seats for Republicans in those states, and gerrymandering could give them another five, by carving up districts in Georgia and North Carolina and Florida.
One potential challenge for Republicans, though, is carving out those suburbs that they’ve relied on for so long. Demographics and voting trends argue against them in Texas and Florida where the population growth is in communities of color and in the suburbs. Kelly Ward Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee argues that those factors will likely limit the number of seats Republicans can craft for themselves. “Their ability to manipulate the map to the tune of 30 seats like they did last time is no longer on the table. […] If the map plays out fairly, we will end up with more competitive seats than we have now.” There’s one word doing a lot of work there: “fairly.” That’s never going to be something Republicans are interested in.
The other problem Republicans will face though is that they’ve become the party of Trump and QAnon and they’ll face that reckoning between now and November 2022. They’re feeling the sharp tip of that coming spike now in dealing with the dangerous threat that is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
From Daily Kos at Read More. This article is republished from DailyKos under an open content license. Read the original article at DailyKos.