Once upon a time, the Republican establishment made a Faustian bargain with the ignorant, racist rabble that makes up the conservative base, and it’s now coming back to bite them. Of the 74 million people who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, a huge chunk of them—the dangerous, conspiracy theory-believing, radicalized populist right—don’t care for Republicans. Their allegiance is to one man: a cult of Trump.
First and foremost, after everything that has happened—the nearly 400,000 dead from COVID, the Capitol insurrection, the refusal to accept democracy, the bullying and deplorable behavior—the Republican base still loves its Donald Trump.
Trump’s job approvals are currently at their lowest levels ever in Civiqs polling history—40% approve, while 57% disapprove. Yet most of that drop is among independents. Republicans are, for the most part, holding firm: Trump’s job approval among Republicans was 91-7 on Election Day, and 88-8 today.
And despite that small erosion in job approvals, Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans is barely budging, from 91% favorable and 7% unfavorable on Election Day, to 90-9 today. Sheesh.
It’s safe to say that despite his unprecedented assault on American democracy, self-identified Republicans aren’t jumping ship. They are slightly less impressed with the job that he is doing, but that’s all cool! They still think he’s the best.
Now compare that to Republican sentiment for the Republican Party:
Those same Republicans approved of the GOP by a 82-9 margin on Election Day. Today’s 64-21 margin is a net 30-point drop. Those are Republicans upset that the party, generically, isn’t “fighting” hard enough to upend the results of the election.
Now look at Mitch McConnell:
Holy crap! McConnell went from a 70-13 favorable rating among Republicans on Election Day, to just 25-49% favorables today! I’ll do the math for you—that’s an 81-point net drop.
As you can see on the graph, the collapse came in two waves—the first after McConnell finally recognized Biden’s victory (after Vladmir Putin had done so and apparently given the go-ahead), and then after the failed insurrection at the Capitol, when McConnell refused to join Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas to contest the Arizona and Pennsylvania electors.
Meanwhile, who was tops on the insurrectionists’ murder list? Vice President Mike Pence. Let’s look at this numbers:
Pence’s 91-6% favorability rating on Election Day was in line with Trump’s 91-7. And Republicans mostly stuck with him while Pence humored Trump’s electoral delusions. But the attack on the Capitol was fueled, in large part, with anger at Pence’s refusal to join in a coup attempt while certifying the Electoral College vote. And the reaction was immediate, as you can see from the chart above, down a net 48 points to a 61-24 favorability rating today,
Once again, Donald Trump is the favorite thing among Republicans. They barely budged off him. The Republican Party has suffered a steep drop, but not as steep as the second- and third-highest ranked Republicans. The party might still be seen as belonging to Trump himself, limiting the damage.
McConnell has always been distrusted by Republicans, for reasons that are unfathomable to me. Look at all the Supreme Court seats he stole for the GOP! Perhaps it’s like El Chapo Trap House-style hatred for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—when you are on the fringe, you are never going to be happy with what any legislative chamber’s leader can accomplish in our current system. And while McConnell had earned some goodwill among Republicans for his defense of Trump during the first impeachment trial, his refusal to sign on to the election challenges eliminated all of that.
But McConnell is easy to hate, and Republicans love to hate him. This isn’t the first time he’s been underwater with Republicans in the three years we’ve tracked him:
Pence, on the other hand, is a reliably conservative Republican stalwart, loyal to a fault to Donald Trump. His Election Day favorables with Republicans actually exceeded Trump’s by a point. His drop in support is directly attributable to his refusal to join the coup attempt.
If Senate Republicans actually provide the votes for conviction, these numbers will be scrambled yet again. Who knows how Trump’s de-platforming will affect his ability to control his party. Will the nascent Lynn Cheney/Lincoln Project faction of the GOP gain traction? The situation is volatile.
But as of now, the GOP is very much Trump’s Party.
From Daily Kos at Read More. This article is republished from DailyKos under an open content license. Read the original article at DailyKos.